The Institute for Chinese Studies and Mershon Center for International Security Studies present:
"Chinese Green Tech Dominance and Competitive Decarbonization"
Jeremy Wallace
Johns Hopkins University
Abstract: Climate policymaking has evolved from addressing collective action problems to pursuing investment-based strategies aimed at local (re-)industrialization and resilient supply chains. How are states responding to one another's efforts to capture market share in interdependent green industrial sectors? This talk will examine these emerging dynamics of competition in clean energy, focusing on how major economies are responding to China's clean tech dominance. We introduce the concept of the "decarbonization trilemma" to explain the tensions between emissions reductions, cost-effectiveness, and supply chain resilience. States no longer just exploit interdependence but seek to unravel potential chokepoints controlled by others and ease supply chain constraints that they perceive to be problematic both for economic and security reasons. Yet these efforts are highly constrained by existing international linkages and domestic institutions, reducing their likelihood of being fully successful. We illustrate the implications of this competitive turn in climate policy through case studies of recent policy initiatives in the United States and the European Union. Competitive decarbonization has mobilized unprecedented public resources for clean energy, but risks fragmenting decarbonization efforts and potentially slowing progress on emissions reductions. Our analysis offers a novel framework for understanding the trade-offs between decarbonization, economic policy, and security.
Jeremy Wallace is A. Doak Barnett Professor of Chinese Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Jonas Nahm is Andrew W. Mellon Associate Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.